Boston Sports Then and Now

Yesterday, the Twitterverse — and, for that matter, Red Sox-based media at large — was abuzz with talk of Jason Bay as the Sox trekked to Port St. Lucie for an exhibition with the left fielder’s new club, the New York Mets.  Bay’s departure from Boston, amidst concerns about his knees and shoulder, was perhaps the team’s biggest off-season story and is certainly the root of wide-spread concerns regarding the Sox’ offense in 2010.

Jason Bay left Boston for the Mets this offseason.

In Theo Epstein’s time as General Manager, several players have left the team as free agents, igniting debate amongst media and fans alike.  Here, I will look at some of the more controversial decisions to let a player walk in the Epstein era and categorize said decisions based on their effect upon the organization since having been made.  

Perhaps of note, the six players to be examined here were important parts of the 2004 World Champion Red Sox.  As such, it should at least be recognized that sentimentality plays a very small role in Epstein’s decisions.

The Well Played, Theo Category

The following players have, with solid retrospect, proven to be not worth re-signing.  In letting them walk, he helped the organization in the long-term.

Pedro Martinez: Pedro is the poster-boy for Red Sox free agents that have left in the last decade.  Amongst the best pitchers in Red Sox history, Martinez was always brash with the media and the organization when it came to talking money.  When he hit free agency before the 2005 season, having just served as one half of the two-ace punch that brought a championship to Boston, it was time for him to get his big pay-day.

Bay will make the same switch in uniform that Pedro did in 2005.

By now, it is common knowledge that Martinez drove up the bidding war between the Sox and the Mets, ultimately netting $53 million over four years from the New York club.  The Red Sox passed at that price; Martinez’s injury history and future durability were a big part of the decision.

The Sox could have used Pedro in 2005, a season wherein he posted a 2.82 ERA in 217 innings.  From then on, though, it was downhill for the former ace, as he would average only 16 starts and 90 innings over the next three years, and his ERA for the period sat at a mediocre 4.74.

The Sox attempted to fill Pedro’s spot with Matt Clement in 2005 and it worked for much of the season before injuries derailed the latter’s season and career.  In 2006, though, they were able to bring in Josh Beckett in a trade with the Marlins, and managed to lock him up for four seasons following.  Who knows if they’d have been able to do so had they signed Pedro to spend most of his contract’s duration on the disabled list?

Even this analysis is incomplete, for it fails to consider that one of the amateur draft picks that the Red Sox accumulated for losing Pedro turned out to be Clay Buchholz, who has already made contributions to the club and stands to make many more in the coming seasons.

Bill Mueller: When the Red Sox traded for Mike Lowell, he was considered washed-up and overpaid, and was taken on as a burden in order to land Josh Beckett.  At the time, there was some clamoring to resign the third baseman who had featured prominently in the dominant lineups from 2003-2005.  Mueller, though, had a history of knee problems and had missed substantial time in 2004.  After signing a 2-year deal with the Dodgers, the popular third baseman would play only 32 games before being forced by the aforementioned problems to call it a career.  Lowell, meanwhile, would have a productive run in Boston, which included a 2007 World Series MVP award.

Trot Nixon: The writing was on the wall for Nixon at the end of the 2006 season, as evidenced by the standing O he was granted in the season finale.  When JD Drew was signed to his $70 million contract the following offseason, though, fans questioned whether or not it would have been better to have simply kept Trot around.  While Drew’s contract has been scrutinized to death and he has proven to be one of the more polarizing players in Sox history, it is undeniable that he has since outproduced Trot, who was out of baseball within less than two years following the end of his Red Sox career.

The It All Evened Out Category

These two players probably could have contributed in Boston and have produced in other cities.  However, Epstein filled the voids they left with other players; he can’t be faulted for having let them walk.

This never did look quite right.

Johnny Damon: The debate surrounding Damon’s departure was on par with those of Martinez and Bay, due in equal part to his cult hero persona, that he was leaving for the arch-rival New York Yankees, and that he was one of the better players at his position in baseball.  Epstein determined, though, that the four year guarantee that New York offered was simply too much for a center-fielder entering his age 32 season.

Shaved and clean cut in New York, Damon has certainly continued to produce; in 576 games with New York, the man formerly known as Captain Caveman put up a cumulative .821 OPS.  However, his range has quickly diminished in center-field and he spent most of 2008 and all of 2009 in left.  Meanwhile, the Sox plugged the hole with top-notch defensive play from Coco Crisp from 2006-2008.  Further, towards the end of 2007, Jacoby Ellsbury debuted for Boston.  The young center-fielder has electrified Red Sox Nation since (though he will be manning leftfield in 2010).

The Red Sox were also able to draft young flamethrower and likely long-term closer Daniel Bard — in the Yankees’ draft spot, no less — as compensation for Damon.  Epstein did alright in letting this fan favorite go.

Derek Lowe: It was, by now famously, a tale of two seasons for Lowe in 2004.  In 33 regular season starts, he did manage to win 14 games, but not without posting an ugly 5.42 ERA and a really ugly 1.62 WHIP.  The post-season, though, was another story, as Lowe would mightily redeem himself by collecting the W in each of the three clinching games en route to a Championship.

After the season, Lowe was a bargain workhorse for the Dodgers for four seasons, averaging 34 starts and 213 innings pitched and compiling a nifty 3.59 ERA, while making $8 million a year.  However, in 2005, David Wells proved to be an upgrade over the 2004 Lowe, posting a 4.45 ERA and winning 15 games.  In years since, the Sox’ starting pitching has rarely been seen as a problem, and the decision to let Lowe walk has not seemed to hurt the club.

In the 2005 draft, the Sox turned Lowe’s compensatory pick into Craig Hansen.  Hansen has proven to be a bust, but he was instrumental in trading for — you guessed it — Jason Bay in 2008.

The Ah, Jeez Category

O, how easier our lives would have been the past few years if only he’d been locked up…

Cabrera provided stability for three months at shortstop.

Orlando Cabrera: Acquired at the 2005 trade deadline, Cabrera actually entered his short tenure with the Sox controversially, as he was brought in to take the place of the legendary Nomar Garciaparra.  The shortstop, though, quickly won over New England as he dazzled in the field and exceeded expectations at bat, hitting .294/.320/.465 in 58 games with Boston.  His walk-off homer against Baltimore in late September was also the cause of one of Jerry Trupiano’s more melodramatic radio calls — that’s saying something.

Following the 2004 season, Epstein elected to let Cabrera leave for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and instead signed then-superstar Edgar Renteria.  Both signed four year contracts; Renteria’s paid $2 million more per season.

Since Cabrera’s departure, Epstein’s been unable to settle on a shortstop; from 2005-2009, Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Jed Lowrie, Nick Green, and Alex Gonzalez (again) have all served as the team’s starting shortstop, with Marco Scutaro getting the call in 2010.  Cabrera, meanwhile, has remained consistent at-bat, though his defense has slipped some with age.  Consistency at the position, though, would have been nice.

Still, the shortstop’s departure should not be considered a total loss; the draft picks left in his stead produced both Ellsbury (who prevents Damon from appearing in this category) and Lowrie.

Conclusions

Look, I love the idea of run prevention.  To me, the idea that a run saved is equivalent to a run scored not only makes sense but is common sense.  I like it, believe it, and even buy into it.

But the fact is that losing Bay’s bat has as good a chance to hurt the organization long-term perhaps more than any of the names listed above.  He led the team in power-based counting stats last year.  Losing that production and not directly replacing it is risky.  I’m not saying it won’t work out, but it’s risky.

Having said that, the players in the “Well Played, Theo” category are the ones who had injury concerns.  The Sox’ medical staff has proven to be pretty solid (though certainly not perfect) since the change in ownership prior to the 2002 season.  I’m tempted to believe that if the team saw something in Bay’s knees that concerned them, it’s there.  I am especially tempted, considering that the doctor that told them so was the same who warned them about Martinez, says the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo.  The difference between Bay and the players listed above, though, is that he has to this point been much more durable.

Bay will likely be a productive player for the Mets for the next four years.  He will also probably be limited defensively and I would not be at all shocked to see him miss time here and there.  Epstein seems to know when to let them go — let’s not forget that he’s produced his share of extensions as well (Beckett, Jason Varitek, David Ortiz, Nixon at an earlier stage of his career, etc.).  Further, even his most questionable balk, in the direction of Cabrera, resulted in high quality draft picks.  If Epstein can turn Bay into a couple more of those and if the outfield defense proves in 2010 and 2011 to be as strong as it appears on paper, I think the decision will likely prove to be of the All Even variety.

What say you?  How foolish or wise do you think the decision to let Jason Bay leave will look in a few years?  Leave a comment with your opinion!

-Adam Vaccaro can be followed on Twitter.