Boston Sports Then and Now

This week I will be counting down to Opening Day by presenting the 30 keys to a successful 2010 campaign for the Boston Red Sox.  Each day except for Saturday, I will post five things that need to go right this year if the team is to meet Red Sox Nation’s always lofty goals.  This will culminate with the top five keys on Sunday morning, just hours prior to baseball season’s official start when Fenway Park plays host to the Red Sox and the Yankees.

Yawkey Way will be filling up in one week.

Here’s the first batch, keys 30-26.

30. Jed Lowrie remains healthy

The Red Sox have done well this offseason to bump this so far down in priority.  A year ago Lowrie’s health was likely in the top 15 keys to the season, and the failure that was the shortstop quartet of 2009 is linked to the Stamford grad’s inability to maintain it.  With Marco Scutaro signed and a few options to fill reserve roles, Lowrie’s health is of much less importance.  All the same, the Sox certainly hope that he can contribute more than he did a year ago as he would likely be the preferred option to fill in should Scutaro or Dustin Pedroia miss time.

29. Tim Bogar can coach third base

After four seasons manning the third base coaching slot, Demarlo Hale is moving to the bench role vacated by Brad Mills.  Hale was hardly ever mentioned during his tenure which means that as a third base coach he was wildly successful.  Bogar is shifting across the diamond from first base (where former Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson will take his place).  If Bogar can maintain the anonymity that his predecessor was able to, it will mean that the Red Sox are successfully rounding — or not rounding — third base.

28. Daniel Bard takes the next step

Last season, Bard was called upon in May to help out in Boston and didn’t look back.  He had a very successful rookie year, posting a 3.65 ERA and striking out 63 in 49.1 innings.  However, he did have a couple of poor streaks over the course of the season that made those numbers less impressive than they may have otherwise been.  Such streakiness is to be expected of a rookie.  This year, Bard is going to be Boston’s top set up man, so he’ll need to demonstrate consistent dominance.  Should he do so we’ll be hearing a whole lot next winter about possible Jonathan Papelbon trades, but that’s a topic for another column.

27. Marco Scutaro’s 2009 was no fluke

Signed to a two year deal this offseason to at last solve the Red Sox’ shortstop problems of the last 6 years, Scutaro is coming off of a career year.  In 2009, he hit .282 with a .379 on base percentage, a .409 slugging average, 12 home runs, and he scored 100 runs.  If he can repeat this, he will represent a significant offensive improvement for Boston.  Those numbers are all career highs, though, and his 2009 OPS was 68 points higher than his career mark.  Given his steady defense, he won’t kill the team should he fall back to his previous marks.  Scutaro and the Sox brass, though, both feel as though in his first season as a starter he had the opportunity to blossom and the numbers are no coincidence.  If they’re right, the club will enjoy the most production from the shortstop spot since Orlando Cabrera left town.

26. Dustin Pedroia has a little more luck

Dustin Pedroia might improve upon his 2009 numbers.

The 2008 MVP saw a dip in his numbers last year, though they were still great for a second baseman.  However, some analysis indicates that he probably hit about as well as he had the year prior, only this time the balls just didn’t fall as regularly.  According to fangraphs, Pedroia actually struck out less and walked more in 2009, and his line drive percentage of 20.0% was just .1% below his career mark.  His batting average on balls in play, though, dropped drastically from .333 and .331 in 2007 and 2008, respectively, to .297.  Given that he was still putting solid wood on the ball, this is largely a function of plain old bad luck.  Should the scrappy second baseman and number two hitter have a few more balls fall his way this year, then it goes without saying that the Red Sox will be in better position to score more runs.

Check back tomorrow with keys 25-21 and all week as we continue the countdown until Opening Day 2010 at Boston Sports Then and Now!

-Adam Vaccaro can be followed on Twitter.