Boston Sports Then and Now

It’s almost time for Brady to get off the links and back on field

If you got the opportunity to ask head coach Bill Belichick about potential offseason transactions, his response would be something to the tune of, “There is no offseason”. Voluntary training camp is five weeks away (April 15th) and franchise QB Tom Brady recently freed up some cap space for the Patriots to make a splash in Free Agency. Will New England bring in a high-profile FA? Probably not, but it’s fun to pontificate around the idea.

After losing to Baltimore in a rematch of the AFC Championship this past year, several glaring weaknesses were apparent agains the Ravens. Both Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, 6′ 1″ and 6′ 2″ respectively, made the Patriots cornerbacks look like Rahim Moore. Who is Rahim Moore you may ask? The Bronco safety who let Jacoby Jones fly by him to bring the divisional matchup into overtime. Yes, I am exaggerating. No, the Patriots cornerback situation isn’t pretty. Resigning or franchising Aqib Talib is up in the air, especially given his injury history.

Where else can the Patriots find a potential fit? Check out these five free agents (in no particular order) below:

1) S – David Bruton: Josh McDaniels drafted this Notre Dame alumni in 2009 as a 4th round pick. Contributing mostly as a standout special teamer last year, he has played out his rookie contract and is looking to get in the mix. With Devin McCourty, Steve Gregory, Tavon Wilson and Nate Ebner all coming back, Bruton could fit in nicely during sub packages and even on ST. Belichick seems to let McDaniel’s reel in his old friends per last year; however, it can’t come back to bite us like Salas did. New England’s focus on signing/drafting a safety is contingent on the Talib situation. McCourty may not play centerfield all year but you have to have faith that he can turn it around. Regardless, the Patriots need help in the secondary. Is Bruton our guy? Probably not but McDaniels and Belichick do get too comfortable at times…

2) WR – David Nelson: Nothing like stealing another weapon from an AFC East rival… Back in 2010, Belichick gave the 6′ 5″ David Nelson a call after he went undrafted, making him a rookie free agent. Throw him in the mix with Hernandez/Gronk and there is no doubt defenses will struggle against the Patriots in the Red Zone, an area where New England squandered way too many opportunities when it mattered last year. After tearing his ACL in September, this sure-handed receiver may not get as many looks as he should during Free Agency. Buy low!

3) WR – Danny Amendola: Rumors have been swirling for a few weeks now about a final destination come summer time. Analysts have pinned Amendola as a likely replacement for Welker but I don’t think nagging both is out of the question. He does not have the durability or Pro Bowl caliber of Wes but they both thrive in the slot. Amendola has posted some ridiculous lines of double digit receptions in his past few years, a feat Welker achieves in his sleep. Let’s just hope we bring back Welker for the rest of his career.

4) S – Dashon Goldson: During the 2011 offseason the Patriots unsuccessfully tried to sway the physical, 6′ 2″ safety to leave the Bay Area for New England. Wait, who is Dashon Goldson? He’s the starting safety that has only missed two games over the past four seasons for the San Francisco 49ers. Since 2009, he’s also grabbed 14 INT – an impressive feat for a safety. Goldson can provide that intimidating force we have been missing since Rodney stopped using PEDs. While he may be pricey coming off a Superbowl run and incremental exposure, I believe he may be worth the guap.

5) CB – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: With good height at 6′ 2″ and 16 career interceptions over 5 seasons, DRC fills a void that bust pick Ras-I Dowling could not. Not only does he add height, but he adds consistent health. Rodgers-Cromartie has missed just three games out of the past eighty over the past five seasons! Although he comes in at a measly 182 lbs for his height, DRC makes up for it with his blazing 4.33 40 yard dash time. Furthermore, DRC finished with 17 pass deflections – good for 7th in the NFL.

Tom Brady will cut Lewis’ last shot of another ring short on Sunday – 6:30 – CBS

The stage is set for a repeat of last year’s AFC Championship game at Gillette Stadium. This is the first time two teams have met in a conference championship game in consecutive seasons since 1994 (DAL & SF). The past three of four games between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens have been decided on the final play. This tidbit is a testament to how intense the battle will be come Sunday night at 6:30. Add in the fact that this is the “last” chance for Ray Lewis; spectators can count on his aggressive play all game.

After losing their most dominant force on offense last week, Rob Gronkowski, spirits remain high in the Patriots locker room. The team has been here before and knows how to execute without one of if not the best tight end in the NFL. While Danny Woodhead is not Gronk, he too was lost early on against the Texans but it did not matter. Shane Vereen was the standout player last week, filling in for Woody, totaling three touchdowns and 124 all-purpose yards.

It has become evident year after year that on both sides of the ball, Belichick implements a system that utilizes each cog to the best of their abilities. Bill will not put a player in a position to fail by deciphering the strengths of each individual. Whether it’s putting Hernandez in open space or Welker underneath, Belichick’s 37 years in the NFL has reined superior with the Patriots. After passing Montana for the most postseason victories (17) as a quarterback, Brady is looking to reach his sixth Super Bowl in his thirteen-year career. Let’s take a look at three keys to victory against some feisty road warriors, the Baltimore Ravens.

1)   Disrupt Joe Flacco: Why are the Ravens traveling to Foxboro on Sunday to compete for a Super Bowl birth? Because of the time Flacco had in the pocket and his strong arm. There is no denying that was some of the worst coverage by Denver’s defensive backs in that Hail Mary. Regardless, Flacco was able to stand tall and deliver long balls all day against the Broncos.

In the playoffs, Joe Flacco is 8/12 for 324 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions on throws deeper than 20 yards downfield. During the regular season, Flacco completed 37% of those tosses with 7 TD. Furthermore, he had the most attempts without an interception (81) of any QB. What does this mean for the Patriots? It’s two-fold.

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Gronkowski & Hernandez need to have big games on Sunday

Three more days. Three more days until we get a taste of what the 2012 New England Patriots will accomplish in the 2013 postseason. While the first-round bye has provided the Pats some much needed rest, it’s time to get back on the field and crush some skulls at 4:30 on CBS. Belichick was quoted Wednesday stating; “You don’t win a war by digging a foxhole and sitting in it. You need to attack.”

With Brady at the helm and a healthy Gronkowski on deck, the Texans are poised for a long night. If Tom takes home the bacon, he will become the NFL’s all-time quarterback leader for playoff victories with 17. Endurance and consistency on Sunday will play an integral role in deciding the victor in this Divisional Round matchup. The Patriots jumped out to an early 21-0 lead at half time in Week 14, but powered through the third and fourth quarters to drop a total of 42 points on Houston.

The majority of analysts in the media give the nod to Matt Schaub as the deciding factor for Houston and they couldn’t be more accurate. There is no doubt Brady and Schaub are in different classes of quarterbacking, however; the Texan QB has a better running back in Arian Foster. If the galloping beast finds early success, play-action could be deadly for the Patriots. There are a myriad of variables that come into play when analyzing a matchup. Take a look at these three keys to victory for the Patriots to move on to the AFC Championship:

1)   Protect Tom Brady: New England held J.J. Watt and the Houston defense to just one sack in Week 14. In fact, it came in the third quarter when the Patriots were up 28-7. The offensive line started the season with injuries galore and some glaring holes to patch up. In Week 2, the Cardinals sacked Tom four times in the upset loss at home. Baltimore knocked down Brady eight times in Week 3, two of which were sacks. The offensive line began to come together slowly but surely and only gave up one sack in the Seahawk loss. Week 15 was a rough one against the 49ers, TB12 was sacked three times over the course of the epic comeback attempt.

Case and point, Brady has been sacked in every loss this season. If these statistics aren’t telling, I’m not sure what else is. One positive is the health of Logan Mankins. After discovering he played in last year’s playoffs with a torn ACL, the Patriots have the Pro Bowl mauler back to full health this January. While Brady may be the best pocket passer in the game, his mobility is limited. New England will find success through the air if Brady can stand tall between the hash marks.

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J.J. Watt is one bad man

Stemming from my preview yesterday, BST&N will now take a look at how Tom Brady and his squadron will fair against the dangerous Texan defense. Five weeks ago, J.J. Watt failed to record a sack on Tom Brady in the 42-14 blowout. Although he forced three QB hits and a fumble on Danny Woodhead, the Patriots limited the success of the perennial DPOY in a variety of ways. From running Hernandez out of the backfield to attacking the secondary deep, McDaniels kept Wade Phillips and the Texan defense on their heals in Week 14. Let’s take a deeper dive into the Divisional Round Matchup.

What stood out to me in Week 14 was the active play of safety Glover Quin. Starting all 16 games of 2012, Quin logged 84 tackles and 2 INT. Phillips utilized Quin in the blitz often and he recorded a big TFL on a third down before the game got out of hand. Glover also knocked down one pass on Monday Night Football to go alongside his 7 tackles. While he did get torched on deep balls to Lloyd and Stallworth, you can bet your mortgage that the Texan secondary will keep receivers in front of them on Sunday. Keep in mind, CB Jonathan Joseph just returned to the field against the Patriots in the regular season. He has since brushed off the rust and picked off Andy Dalton last week.

Brady put on a clinic in Week 14, posting the following line:

21/35 – 296 YDS – 4 TD – 0 INT – 125.4 Passer Rating

Bringing back Gronkowski will shift the focus for Texan safeties and linebackers, creating more opportunities for Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen to cause problems in the pass game. The Patriots ran multiple stretch play actions in Week 14, opening up the middle of the field and causing confusion. New England is known for their intricate screen game, expect a heavy dosage of these cute plays away from J.J. Swatt. His 20.5 sacks and 16 pass deflections are not a fluke, he is a force to be reckoned with for years to come.

New England rushed the ball 30 times for 133 yards in Week 14. Ridley pounded the rock three times in a row on their first possession in hopes of softening the defense. With ball security issues haunting him all year, protecting the pigskin is priority number one on Sunday. That goes for TB12 as well, we all remember how Baltimore stormed into Gillette – scored on their first drive and then stripped Brady on the following possession. If Hernandez does not recover Ridley’s fumble the outcome of this game could have been drastically different.

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Schaub will need to play better to earn a Texan victory

As if the Houston Texans needed additional motivation to avenge for their embarrassing performance on Monday Night Football in Week 14, Dan Shaughnessy laid it up on a silver platter. Characterizing this divisional round rematch as another bye week is bold, but that is the world we live in — the digital age. Everybody has an opinion; some just have more awareness and access than others.

Off-field commentary aside, the Patriots defensive unit dominated Matt Schaub a month ago. In preparation for the divisional round playoff rematch, BST&N is taking a deeper look at Houston’s offensive performance and New England’s defensive counter.

Despite falling behind 21-0 early, the Texan QB was limited to:

19/32 – 232 Yards – 0 TD – 1 INT – 68.8 Passer Rating

Furthermore, Wilfork lead our stingy defense to record:

2 SACK – 8 TFL – 7 PD – 7 QB HITS

After rewatching the game last night via NFL Network, I’d like to highlight several of my observations on the defensive side of the ball:

- Alfonzo Dennard & Dont’a Hightower had multiple open field tackles on third down. These two rookies played an integral role in limiting Texan success.

- Jerod Mayo was lined up all over the field, disguising his blitzes and creating constant pressure off the edge on Schaub to make rushed hot reads.

- DL Brandon Deaderick logged 5 total tackles, the most of his 2012 campaign.

- DE Justin Francis was disruptive, causing 2 QB hits – one forced a game-changing Devin McCourty interception

New England also did a remarkable job of limiting stud Arian Foster to:

15 CAR – 46 YDS – 3.1 AVG – 1 TD

On the contrary, he was effective in the passing game – grabbing 4 balls for 39 yards. If limiting Andre Johnson to less than 100 yards is a win, the Patriots earned another victory in Week 14 (8 REC – 95 YDS). The downside of this statistic is that he was targeted 10 times and had one drop. The Patriots were playing prevent defense with an early lead but they need to do a better job of denying Andre the ball.

The course of the rematch could go a variety of ways, but I expect a much tighter game. On the first drive of Week 14, Ridley fumbled on the goal line and the Texans muffed the recovery. Combine that with a few costly third down penalties on Houston and New England was the benefactor of some huge needle swinging plays early on. Not to mention, Woodhead’s lucky fumble into Brandon Lloyd’s arms was just good fortune.

While the Patriots have defended the run admirably all year, Arian Foster has made history by rushing for the most postseason yards (425) in his first three playoff games. He gained 140 yards against the Bengals last week, but once again – only totaled 46 yards on the ground in Week 14. Limiting Foster and making the shaky Schaub ( 0 TD, 3 INT in his past three games) beat the Patriots will be the key to victory on the defensive side of the ball. If New England causes a few turnovers and wraps up like Week 14, Tom Brady and a healthy Gronkowski will take it home in a much closer game than people expect.

Be on the lookout for a Patriots Offense vs. Texans Defense preview tomorrow.

The AFC Playoff Picture

The stage is set and the teams are locked in. Just like the good ‘ol days, Brady & Manning are resting up for divisional round match-ups at home next week. Who the future Hall-of-Famers square off against will be more clear following the first AFC Wild Card match-up:

(6) Cincinnati Bengals @ (3) Houston Texans – 01/05 – 4:30 – NBC

After losing their final two regular season games and slipping out of a first-round bye, the (12-4) Texans host the (10-6) Bengals on Saturday. Houston started out hot with an (11-1) record but got dismantled by the Patriots in Week 14 and lost to Minnesota and Indianapolis in Week 16 and 17 respectively. While the momentum is not in their favor, you have to believe HC Gary Kubiak can muster up a gameplan to utilize stud Arian Foster.

Take away his 16 CAR/96 YDS/1 TD performance in Week 17, Foster has been less than impressive in the other three losses. Examine his Week 6 performance against the Packers, 17 CAR/29 YDS but 2 TDs saved his day. In Week 14 against the Patriots he posted a 15 CAR/46 YDS/1 TD line. Two weeks later he rushed 10 times for 15 yards against the Vikings.

If the Bengals can limit Arian Foster, they have a shot of traveling to Mile High stadium to take on Peyton Manning. That is of course under one condition; Andy Dalton (3669 YDS 27 TD) needs to play the game of his life. His highlight reel TD connections with A.J. Green (1350 YDS 11 TD) have been impressive this year, his 16 INT – not so much. Add in another 4 FUM and Dalton averages 1.25 turnovers per game, yikes. They do have intriguing weapons like Andrew Hawkins and Jermaine Gresham that can be gamechangers. Old friend BJGE broke 1,000 yards for the Bengals and continues to do what he does best, protect the football and pound the rock in between the tackles.

Unless Cincinnati studies the game tapes of our Texan beat-down, I believe Andre Johnson, J.J. Watt and other skill players will prove to be too much for the young Bengals to handle. Thus stated, I predict Houston traveling to New England after a 31-21 victory that stays close until the fourth quarter.

(5) Indianapolis Colts @ (4) Baltimore Ravens – 1/06 – 1:00 – CBS

Has there been a better story than the transformation of the Peyton-less Colts? Rookie QB Andrew Luck (4,374 YDS/23 TD/18 INT) is living up to the hype of his number one selection and will battle QB Robert Griffin III for the ROY. Chuck Pagano’s perseverance through leukemia has inspired Indy to stay #chuckstrong and the team has gone from (2-14) in 2011 to (11-5) in 2012. Pagano was a secondary coach and then defensive coordinator for the Ravens before taking the head coach job with the Colts this year.

Similar to Houston, Baltimore has been on a December slide – losing their last four of five games. To their credit, they were defeated by Pittsburgh, Washington, Denver and Cincinnati – three of which are in the playoffs. QB Joe Flacco reduced his interceptions by two and added two more TDs in comparison to 2011, rounding off the season with (3,817 YDS/22 TD/10 INT). Ray Rice took a dip in production but turned in another solid season, gaining 1,143 YDS and 9 TDs on the ground. Combine that with 61 REC /478 YDS and you have one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL.

While the Colts have young, budding talent in Luck, TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, WR T.Y. Hilton and RB Vick Ballard, this game will be a challenge on the road. Ray Lewis is poised to make his return after missing the last ten games with a torn tricep. Who knows though, the Colts just knocked off the Texans. The Ravens are 6-2 at home this year and you can bet on #52 bringing crazy amounts of energy and motivation in the middle of that defense. On the contrary, I predict Indianapolis to upset the Ravens 21-17 and head to Denver to take on Manning and the Broncos.

Are you ready for some playoff football?